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Dec 10, 2012
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clinton did it legitimately, i think. but in other words, the keynesian idea was we run up a deficit when we have a swamp. we run up a large deficit when we have a slump and run up medium-sized deficits in times of prosperity. the u.s. government is spending about $3.6 trillion this year. federal spending has gone up at roughly twice the rate of economic growth. interest payments are temporarily manageable. but interest rates are at historic lows and likely to go up. our current situation is in no way comparable to that of the '40's when the national debt grew to an amount nearly equal to annual gdp. once the war ended, spending went down and the u.s. proceeded to grow at a greater than 4% annual rate for 20 years. that took care of the deficit or the debt with the problem. today, everything points in the other direction. interest rates are likely to go up. demand for further spending will increase for reasons i will get to a minute. state and local governments rely on federal transfers to balance their books. the state o
clinton did it legitimately, i think. but in other words, the keynesian idea was we run up a deficit when we have a swamp. we run up a large deficit when we have a slump and run up medium-sized deficits in times of prosperity. the u.s. government is spending about $3.6 trillion this year. federal spending has gone up at roughly twice the rate of economic growth. interest payments are temporarily manageable. but interest rates are at historic lows and likely to go up. our current situation is in...
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Dec 10, 2012
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bush and clinton administrations. both of you went to the same university. i'm sure you can agree on everything today. dr. zandi first. >> thank you for the opportunity. it is an honor to be here with kevin, a good friend of mine. let me say that these are my own personal views. lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. that is deficit reduction and tax increases and spending cuts that allow the gdp ratio to stabilize by the end of the decade. these three things need to be done now. in terms of the fiscal cliff, if policy is unchanged and we go over the cliff and there is still no change after that, the gdp in 2013 will 3.5 percentage points. subtract that and that is a severe recession. cbo and others are probably us are underestimating how severe that will be because confidence is very weak. it is unclear how the reserve would response to this. we need to scale back from the cliff. at the
bush and clinton administrations. both of you went to the same university. i'm sure you can agree on everything today. dr. zandi first. >> thank you for the opportunity. it is an honor to be here with kevin, a good friend of mine. let me say that these are my own personal views. lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability....
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Dec 5, 2012
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on january 1 we go back to the clinton tax rates on everybody. number two, there's the beginning of a process of $1.2 trillion in spending cuts from the -- half from the pentagon and half from domestic spending. it would be gradual. so if we got to january 1 with nothing done, congress would still have time to act in both areas before the impact of those policies took effect. host: if congress disagree -- if investors start to doubt a deal could be reached, the consequences could prove to be severe and difficult to reverse. causing consumers and businesses to retrench, dampening investment. a genie you could not put back in the bottle. guest: i think there is some basis for that. what's happened in congress, it's been dysfunctional, is that we are doing things not by steady negotiations but by super brinksmanship. that's what happened in the debt ceiling fight last august. that's what happened in the budget debate in december of 2011. when we went right up to the midnight hour to determine whether we were going to keep the lights on in government
on january 1 we go back to the clinton tax rates on everybody. number two, there's the beginning of a process of $1.2 trillion in spending cuts from the -- half from the pentagon and half from domestic spending. it would be gradual. so if we got to january 1 with nothing done, congress would still have time to act in both areas before the impact of those policies took effect. host: if congress disagree -- if investors start to doubt a deal could be reached, the consequences could prove to be...
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Dec 4, 2012
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restoring the clinton tax rates is something i would support. we supported them back in 1991 when bill clinton was running for president. no problem on that. it is a reasonable adjustment, but may not be sufficient to reach the targets we need and it does not help us in bipartisan bargaining, reaching a deal. i hope as this negotiation -- we ought to be at the irish times -- that they will not make a fetish of marginal tax rates street if they should go up some, but do they need to go back where they work? i do not know. lots of ways to increase taxes on rich people, and it may be that a hybrid of marginal tax increases and the kind of base- broadening loophole closing expenditure closing that simpson-bowles proposed should be part of the mix. raising marginal rates does not guarantee you will get your intended target. a very rich people depend more on investment income than on their labour income. if you want to get them -- and this is where mitt romney was able to pay a 14% tax rate on earnings of $14 million -- so if you are trying to get the
restoring the clinton tax rates is something i would support. we supported them back in 1991 when bill clinton was running for president. no problem on that. it is a reasonable adjustment, but may not be sufficient to reach the targets we need and it does not help us in bipartisan bargaining, reaching a deal. i hope as this negotiation -- we ought to be at the irish times -- that they will not make a fetish of marginal tax rates street if they should go up some, but do they need to go back...